Sunday, December 27, 2009


Ok - all my readers know the Barclays story - I tipped them at about 80 they went down to 50 odd and then rose to £3 odd, unfortunately everone else made me nervous and i bottled it taking 30% profit (still gutted).

My share tip for next year is Taylor Wimpey at 37p. Many people will think this is mad and it may well be and it certainly is not risk free. However, i see a potential recovery in house prices and can see the banks coming under much more pressure to start lending again resulting in an increase in the number of mortgages processed.

Results announced last week showed big losses for this week but 2 things caught my eye.

1) Chief exec and another sneior manager will move on in 2010.

2) Some big asset write downs were released as loss from balance sheet to the years profit (loss) statment. I have seen numerous cases when this happens when they try and get all the bad news out the way in one go. It could be that if property starts to rise again then this land may even get written back and as a result profits would hit statements. Investment is shares is purley for potential capital gain and not for dividend which i suspect will be nothing in year.

Risky - feel free to agree / disagree thats why we have buyers and sellers :D


rubbish said...

Hi Soap,
Been off line/pissed for the last week so only just read your good news about the Mrs. Congrats mate and all the best for 2010.

Anonymous said...

I can only see this share going up. You're right, they have a huge stock of land, which they can write up as profits when posting there year end in March. They have also changed building strategy to homes, this gives more profits and is what UK homebuyers want. In Canada they have a huge business, which has not been hit by the US and Europe slum. Some people are predicting 1.60 a share by April. Guess we'll see.